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          姜銳:Travel Cost Budget based User Equilibrium in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity




          報告人:   姜銳  教授



          姜銳,北京交通大學交通運輸學院教授。主要研究方向是交通流和相關復雜系統。主持國家自然科學基金優青項目、重點項目、國家重點研發計劃課題等 10 余項科研項目。在《Transportation Research Part B》、《TransportationScience》、《ISTTT》、《Transportation Research Part C》等著名國際學術期刊和會議上發表SCI論文170余篇, SCI他引3000余次。獲教育部自然科學一等獎和安徽省自然科學二等獎各1次。


          Thispaper studies a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck isconstant within a day but changes stochastically from day-to-day between adesigned value (good condition) and a degraded one (bad condition). The studyrelates the travel cost variability due to stochastic capacity with commuters’departure time choice behaviors. We postulate that commuters acquire thevariability of travel cost based on past experiences and factor suchvariability into their departure time choice consideration by minimizing theirtravel cost budget, defined as a weighted average of mean travel cost andstandard deviation of travel cost. It is shown that there exist seven possibleequilibrium patterns, although one of them is implausible in practice. Allpossible equilibrium patterns and their corresponding parameter ranges areanalytically derived. A preliminary "round-to-round" study shows thatdeparture pattern changes periodically in the remaining parameter range, andthus no equilibrium can be reached. Dependence of travel cost and the durationof peak hours on the commuters' risk preference has also been derived in eachequilibrium pattern. Finally, numerical studies have been conducted toillustrate the properties.